Miles Sanders ran for nine scores through three NFL seasons (480 carries) before truly breaking out last season and punching it in 11 times on 259 attempts. Under normal circumstances, a 26-year-old with pedigree coming off of a season like that would be the toast of the fantasy football community, but Sanders inked a four-year, $25.4 million deal with the Carolina Panthers, and he’s being treated as a fifth-round pick in drafts.
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Miles Sanders’ Fantasy Outlook
The situation change is as important as anything in Sanders’ case, as he moves from one of the most potent units in the land to … well, one led by a rookie quarterback that was abysmal a year ago.
2022 Eagles:
- Yards Per Game: 3rd
- Points Per Game: 3rd
- Third-Down Conversion Rate: 4th
- Time of Possession: 8th
2022 Panthers:
- Yards Per Game: 29th
- Points Per Game: 20th
- Third-Down Conversion Rate: 30th
- Time of Possession: 32nd
The hope is that Carolina improves on those numbers sooner than later, though there are almost certain to be ups and downs in the Bryce Young experience. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark were brought in this offseason in an effort to offset the void left by DJ Moore after the Panthers dealt for the top overall pick.
Behind the two veterans are three kids (Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo, and Laviska Shenault Jr.) whom the Panthers are going to try to develop on the fly.
As far as the backfield is concerned, Chuba Hubbard is entering his third season with the team and averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his limited work in 2022. In 2021, Hubbard was given the opportunity to impress, but he managed just 3.6 yards per carry. He is nice depth at the position, though the Panthers are likely to ride Sanders in a big way.
How Much Will a Less Potent Offense Impact Sanders’ Stats?
First of all, it is important to dismiss a common notion: bad teams can have viable fantasy running backs. That’s not to say I’m exclusively targeting terrible teams when it comes to filling my RB slots, but every year, I hear the “his team is going to be behind all season, and that’ll make it difficult to produce” argument. It hurts my soul. It’s just not that simple.
Six of the top-11 fantasy football RBs (half-PPR, ppg) last season played for a team that lost more games than they won. In July, I wrote about the impact of Sanders potentially assuming a three-down role, as Adam Caplan reported was possible after speaking to the coaching staff. That, friends, is the skeleton key.
MORE: Miles Sanders Injury Update — Latest on Carolina Panthers RB
A bad team will result in limited scoring opportunities (especially when compared to the situation Sanders is leaving behind), but versatility can offset that in our game.
That’s the question: Can Sanders rediscover a role he had his rookie season before Jalen Hurts’ unique skill set changed the entire playbook in Philadelphia?
Percentage of touches that were receptions:
- 2019: 21.8%
- 2020-22: 11.7%
In that 2019 season, Sanders ranked 12th at the position in yards after the catch per reception and seventh in aDOT. Those numbers tell me that he entered the league as a legitimate threat out of the backfield. Not just a “can catch dump-offs in case of an emergency” type, but a running back with a skill set that can (and should) be leveraged as a part of the game plan.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Sanders at His ADP?
Is he a fine pick in the fifth round? Yes, but picking Sanders is more of a roster construction play than a draft-day target. If you went receiver-heavy early on and want to lock in a stable running back, I love looking Sanders’ way.
If you, however, picked a running back with your first pick, or two of your first three, Sanders’ limited ceiling is less appealing. In that scenario, I’d be more likely to roll the dice on a receiver with significant upside (Drake London or Mike Williams, to name two) or lock in my guy Trevor Lawrence.
Every fantasy football player falls into one of four buckets: actively avoid, will take at a discount, draftable at his ADP, or worth a reach. Sanders is between option two and three for me, moving firmly into that third category if we get proof that he is, in fact, set to be involved in this passing game.
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